Predicting Amplitude of Solar cycle

Indian Astronomers recently identified a new method of predicting amplitude of upcoming Solar cycles using 100 years of solar data from the Kodaikanal Solar Observatory.

Key Findings of the Discovery:

• Researchers from the Indian Institute of Astrophysics (IIA), Bengaluru, used over 100 years (9 solar cycles) of solar chromospheric images from the Kodaikanal Solar Observatory.
  • Kodaikanal Solar Observatory is one of the oldest solar observatories in the world, formed in 1899 on the southern tip of the Palani Hills, Tamil Nadu.
• They discovered that the width of supergranular cells on the solar surface during solar minima correlates with sunspot numbers in subsequent cycles.
• Supergranulations are large convective cells on the Sun’s surface, with borders called supergranular lanes.
• These lanes are about 30,000 km in size, with thickness varying across the solar cycle.
• The width of supergranular lanes near the mid-latitudes during sunspot cycle minima strongly correlates with the amplitude of the subsequent cycle.
• This correlation is weak or insignificant at other times in the solar cycle, as lane thickness during other phases does not predict the next cycle’s strength.
• This method provides a straightforward way to predict the next sunspot cycle’s strength about 4–5 years in advance.

About Solar Cycles:

• The solar cycle is an approximately 11-year cycle during which the Sun’s magnetic activity increases and decreases.
• This cycle is characterized by variations in the number of sunspots, solar flares, and other solar phenomena.
• It affects space weather and has significant implications for satellite operations, communication systems, and even Earth’s climate.

Phases of the Solar Cycle

• Solar Minimum is the period when the Sun’s magnetic activity is at its lowest, and marks the beginning and end of a solar cycle.
• Solar Maximum is the period when the Sun’s magnetic activity is at its highest, and many sunspots, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) occur.
• Transition Phases lie between the solar minimum and maximum, where the number of sunspots and solar activity gradually increase or decrease.

Amplitude of a Solar Cycle

• It refers to the maximum number of sunspots observed during the solar maximum phase.
• This is a measure of the intensity of the solar cycle.
• It is dependent on the following factors:
  • Solar Magnetic Field: Stronger magnetic fields can result in a higher number of sunspots, leading to a higher amplitude.
  • Solar Dynamo: The process that generates the Sun’s magnetic field through the movement of conductive materials inside the Sun.

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